Can Mexico Survive? US military prepares contingency plans.

A new US military report is asking the what if question (as military reports often do) about the possible failure of the Mexican government.

The command’s “Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)” report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. “In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.

“The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.”

The issue of Mexico being a ‘failed state‘ is being discussed in Washington, but this is the first US military analysis of the situation that I’ve seen. You can read the full report here

Honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if we start to see contingency plans, including military intervention, should the government of Mexico collapse. Though I don’t foresee such a situation (i.e. the destruction of the Mexican government) anytime in the near future. But if you remember what happened with Noriega in Panama, should we start to see corruption reach the highest levels of the Mexican government, could a military ‘regime change’ be a possibility?

This will be an interesting one to watch.


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