Category: National Security

Russia continues to pour troops into South Ossetia and has reportedly stepped up the bombing of Georgia, targeting not just military locations but economic assets such as ports and pipelines. Meanwhile the world has been sending ambassadors and whatnot demanding that Russia pullback, but the Russian government is starting to ask the big question–why?

Russia will win militarily, through sheer numbers if not military ability. While it may be a much longer fight than just this weekend (despite what Russian bloggers think) the overall political climate in Russia is now asking the question ‘maybe we should redraw the maps.’

With a veto at the UN, don’t expect ‘blue helmets’ to be replacing the Russian ‘peacekeepers’ in South Ossetia anytime soon. Putin is calling the Georgian attack ‘Genocide’ which is a pretty loaded word designed to stir up a range of emotions around the world, though many around the world take everything Putin says with a grain of salt. It’s pretty clear that most of the world isn’t going to be rushing to the Russian side on this matter, but it’s also pretty clear that that doesn’t really matter.

What happens next is anyones guess. Militarily we could see guerilla-like fighting for years. Economically it’s unlikely we’ll see any sort of sanctions or anything more than a slap on the wrist (i.e. visa troubles for Russian leaders, etc). Russia might find itself kicked out of the G-8 regardless of who wins the American presidential election in a few months, but it’s doubtful many Russians would really care.

How much of a ‘resurgence’ in the Russian military is ‘real’ (readiness / training / resupply) and how much was for ’show’ (i.e. long range bomber flights of little significant value) over the last few years of Putin’s tenure will soon become apparent. Should the Roki tunnel (where South Ossetia gets much of its money) be blown up by some errant missile, resupply of Russian forces would become a bit more difficult.

We’ll see what happens next.

p.s. for additional updates from the Russian point of view you can use TASS’s English language website. It is updated more frequently than Russia Today’s website. For the Georgian side you can check the Civil.ge website.

UPDATES:

* Head of the Russian 58th Army injured in attack.

* Georgia claims to retake South Ossetian capital, destroying 40 Russian tanks.

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The ‘war’ in South Ossetia between Russia and Georgia (well, is it a war or not, who really knows or cares at this point) has gotten to the point that reliable information from the ground is difficult to obtain.

* Both sides claim to be in control (or occupying) the South Ossetian capital city. Russiatoday claims the capital is basically destroyed, including many hospitals.

* Bombs continue to fall on Georgian cities from Russian aircraft.

* Georgia has called for a cease-fire, as have many members of the UN.

* In Abkhazia, separtistist are trying to open a ’second front’ against Georgia by launching air and artillery strikes on Georgian forces in the Kodori Gorge.

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* Russian planes attacked the Georgian city of Gori, bombing military bases and reportedly some civilian buildings.

* Russia announced additional forces will be sent to South Ossetia.

* The Georgian port of Poti was destroyed.

* Georgia claims 10 planes have been shot down, and Russian TV confirms at least two.

* 1,500 have been reported killed.

* President Bush has called for an immediate halt to all fighting.

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* 150 Russian tanks in the suburbs of the South Ossetian capital

* Georgia recalls 1,000 Georgian troops currently in Iraq.

* RussiaToday puts death toll at 1,400.

* Georgia claims 5 Russian aircraft shot down.

* 1000s of Russian / Cossack volunteer forces are heading for Ossetia.

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AP is reporting that Russian television is claiming Russian troops are entering South Ossetia.

A Russian official denied bombing Georgia, but Russian state television said Russian troops were moving into South Ossetia and showed a convoy of tanks that it said had already crossed the border. The convoy was expected to reach the provincial capital, Tskhinvali, by evening, Channel One television said.

UPDATE: BBC is reporting 150 pieces of armor coming through the tunnel (one does wonder why the Georgians did not blow it up)

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For many Americans you can now catch live coverage of the Georgia-South Ossetia crisis on the Kremlin’s Engilsh language service Russia Today. The MHZ Networks offers Russia Today as a free channel to residents in the Washington, DC area, and Russia Today is free to air on many satellites over the US. If you don’t have one of those services, you can also catch Russia Today’s Youtube Channel

Now, being a Russian channel, you’ll hear some stuff like:

* “We must stop the slaughter of Russians”

* “Russia will not tolerate deaths of compatriots”

and you won’t hear about Russian warplanes being involved or any resupply of South Ossetians from Russian territory.

But still, given that the US media is focused on the Olympics or the bus crash in Texas today (12 dead) at least you’ll get to hear something about what is going on (and lots and lots of live video).

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The Georgian Messenger is the English language daily that is ‘live blogging’ events from South Ossetia. There latest blog post is pretty interesting.

Georgia’s Rustavi 2 television station, citiing Russian news reports, just announced that Georgian troops have taken Tskhinvali.

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Well all pretense of negotiated settlements and cease fires has seem to go out the windows.

Georgian troops and South Ossetian forces have engaged in some pretty heavy shelling today that’s left at least 10 Georgian troops dead. The BBC is also reporting that fighters from around the region are gearing up for battle and heading to the scene:

Moscow-based Interfax news agency quoted the head of Russia’s province of North Ossetia, Taimuraz Mamsurov, as saying: “Hundreds of volunteers from North Ossetia are on their way to South Ossetia. We cannot stop them or prevent them from going.”

It also quoted Sergei Bagapsh, the head of Georgia’s other breakaway province of Abkhazia, as saying: “About 1,000 Abkhaz volunteers are leaving for South Ossetia.”

Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia, is under attack from many sides, according to published reports.

The London Telegraph is going so far as to call this a full scale invasion by Georgian forces, including photos of troops on the move.

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