This is not Georgia despite the similarities.
Russian tanks smash over the border into a satellite state. NATO at a loss to explain why or how, or more importantly, what to do about it. You think Georgia / South Ossetia was the first time this has happened? Not hardly.
This week is the 40th anniversery of the of the Prague Spring that was crushed by Russian tanks crossing the border and replacing the more liberal minded government with one more to their liking. The Spiegel magazine has a good reexamination (in English) of those events, utilizing documents from the NATO archive that show just how unprepared the West was for this event.
When it was over, Western officers, awkwardly, seemed surprised. Against their will they had to admit the camouflage hiding the march of Warsaw Pact troops into Prague had been “good,” and the speed of their divisions “impressive.” The way the Kremlin led units out of the western part of the Soviet Union “unnoticed” was also noteworthy. The enemy, in short, had scored a “tactical victory.”
This was the verdict on Aug. 27, 1968 from NATO headquarters in Brussels on “Operation Danube” — the suppression of the legendary Prague Spring. A week earlier, 27 divisions of Soviet Russians, Poles, Hungarians and Bulgarians — around 300,000 men, armed with 2,000 heavy cannons — marched into the small state of Czechoslovakia to end the experiment of “socialism with a human face.” It was the largest military operation since the World War II, and the West was caught off guard.
It’s a pretty good article outlining the failures of the West and the success of the Russians. Worth a review if you are still wondering what happened then (or now).
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In response to international pressure to come forward with the truth behind their claims of ‘mass casualties’ in South Ossetia, the Russian government has finally admitted that initial death toll estimates of nearly 2,000 dead were overstated. New figures released today show that 133 civilians died in South Ossetia. South Ossetian officials said 1,492 civilians had been killed, but international investigators are reporting the numbers will be in the ‘dozens’ not hundreds, let alone thousands.
Both Georgia and Russia have filed human rights cases accusing the other of genocide. As these trials move forward additional facts may come to light.
Last week Georgia said it had filed a case against Russia on charges of ethnic cleansing at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which rules on disputes between nations.
Meanwhile the International Criminal Court said it was conducting an analysis of the conflict over potential war crimes – but that it was stopping short of an investigation.
Chief prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo said in a statement that his office had been “closely monitoring all information on the situation” including reports on attacks on civilians.
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We’ve been questioning the ‘2,000 dead’ claim by Russian media, and to date they haven’t come up with any reliable numbers about just how many were killed in South Ossetia. It does appear clear the Russian media was way out of the ballpark with the claim of 2,000 dead, by a factor of about 40 or 50 times the actual death toll.
The Georgian government has released their casualty figures.
Total number of people killed since the launch of the armed conflict reached 215 on the Georgian side as of August 19.
69 of them are civilians.
133 killed are the Georgian Ministry of Defense personnel, including four servicemen of the reserve troops and 13 – the Interior Ministry personnel.
In fact reports are now out that the town that was ‘leveled’ according to Russian news reports is still standing, and the only hospital in the area had 40 deaths reported.
Researchers for Human Rights Watch, an international advocacy group, had similar findings as McClatchy about casualty numbers in Tskhinvali. A doctor at the city’s hospital told the group’s researchers that 44 bodies were brought by and was “adamant” that they represented the majority of deaths there because the city’s morgue was not functioning at the time.
“Obviously there’s a discrepancy there, a big discrepancy,” Rachel Denber, deputy director for Europe and Central Asia at Human Rights Watch, said about the apparently inflated casualty figures. “It’s not clear to us at all where those numbers are coming from.”
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Awe inspiring, isn't it? NOT
Waiting with baited breath here…Not really.
But NATO is going to have an emergency session in which they discuss the Russian-Georgia situation. US diplomats have demanded a meeting and will likely press for some flashy but ineffectual sanctions against Russia, such as suspending the NATO-Russia conferences and appointing a NATO ambassador to Georgia.
Meanwhile, Russian tanks are getting comfy digging in throughout Georgia proper with no signs of a pull out anytime soon. In addition, Russian short-range missiles are being placed in South Ossetia.
It’s only going to take one Georgian who lost some family members in the attack to reignite this whole conflict as long as Russian tanks are in the vicinity of Georgian civilians. One guy going off and we’re going to see the cease-fire suspended and tanks on the move throughout.
One has to wonder if that is what Russia is hoping for…
UPDATE:
20 Prisoners exchanged between Russian-Georgian forces.
NATO calls Russia’s action in violation of International law.
20 European observers to be sent to Georgia.
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Not your (grand)father's Huey
Yea, this helicopter has sort of been around for awhile. It’s 2008 and a helicopter design first laid out nearly 50 years ago is still going strong in the service, especially with the updates to the UH-1Y variant that met ‘Initial Operating Capability ’ standards last week. Originally these were going to be updated versions of existing helicopters, but after trying that out the Marines decided to build these new choppers from the ground up.
The first helicopters will go out with the fleet early next year with with the 13th MEU aboard the USS Boxer.
Sadly, I haven’t seen one of these in person yet, despite them being tested at PAX river. Should one fly by the house I’ll try to snap a picture.
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