National Security – Page 11

The recent crisis in Georgia has revealed the impotence of ‘Old Europe’ and NATO. Is it time for something new to meet the needs of New Europe?

Deja vu all over again?

While Russian tanks were crossing through the tunnels and passes (memo to Georgia: everyone knows you blow up the tunnels and bridges first), the leaders of Western Europe were basically caught with nothing to do. ”They haven’t shot at me” was basically the point that was on the mind of every Western European leader, followed quickly by “I don’t want to go nuclear over Georgia”. These two factors (not, in any way, who was right or who was wrong) were what kept most European leaders sitting on their hands as they watched Georgia get chewed to pieces.

When we used to study Soviet Military Power and Doctorine it was always assumed that the first time a Soviet tank went on the offensive it would be shooting at a NATO tank, and thus the decision to start fighting back would be off the table. Some 18-year-old kid in the turret of a tank somewhere in Germany was going to decide NATO’s response to a Soviet conventional attack. But in this new world, that ease of red force/blue force decision making is gone, and we’re stuck in the grey area.

You can find some contrast in the response of Europe if you take a look at the leaders of ‘New Europe. Composed of former Soviet states they were not afraid in the least to mess with the Bear, for they knew what awaited them should their countries fall back into the ’sphere of influence’. Ukraine has told the Black Sea fleet they can expect problems when they return, and leaders of many former Soviet republics flew into Georgia in the middle of the fight to provide counsel and assistance. Some in the Eastern European media are even asking if Old Europe really understands what is going on:

“Old Europe,” once again, failed to listen to the warnings of those with first-hand knowledge of Russian treachery. “Old Europe isn’t listening to Poles, Lithuanians and Ukrainians. Old Europe doesn’t want to anger Russia, and doesn’t see the integrity of Georgia’s borders as something worth risking its relationship with Moscow over,” the left-leaning daily Gazeta Wyborcza wrote. “Once again, we can only try to tell them that we’re not letting our feelings be guided by Russophobia but merely speaking from long years of personal experience.”

Unfortunately New Europe is pretty weak and the US is pretty busy elsewhere in the world. So it has me wondering if now is the time for a new, mini-version of NATO. Composed of the Eastern European states (and armed and supported by Old Europe). A NATO that does not have nukes and is not a nuclear threat to Russia, but one that is well equipped, trained, and ready to take on the Bear should it come poking around it’s old stomping grounds. A force like this might be the one needed to stop an aggressive and growing threat.

One by one, the old Soviet empire could be rebuilt by a resurgent Russia and a placid NATO. Georgia, Ukraine, Lativa, Estonia, etc. They could fall without most Americans even noticing to be quite honest. But if they fought together, they might actually have a chance. Perhaps it is time for New Europe to look for a new alliance to help them in the new reality they now face.

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Because you probably don't know where it is either.

Debka, which is NOT one of the most accurate websites in the world (but still pretty interesting) is reporting that the quasi-breakaway region of Adjara (also spelled Ajaria and Ajara) in the Southwest corner of Georgia may be ripe for the pickings by Russian naval forces. The population of Adjara is split between Russians and Muslims and there is a bit of discontent with the Georgian government (though not as much as in Ossetia). After a briefing crisis, the former separatist leader was sent to exile in Moscow.

There is/was a Russian naval base in Batumi, and another small garrison elsewhere in the region that is supposed to be turned over soon. However, Batumi is the pipeline <-> ship port for Georgia and having control of this vital location is certainly of interest to some in Moscow.

It will be interesting to see how far Russia goes in ‘punishing’ Georgia and whether this might include the port at Batumi.

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Russian Black Sea fleet at Sevastopol, for now.

Its not a tank but it can still hurt you.

It's not a tank but it can still hurt you.

The War Crimes Tribunal at the Hague may hear the allegations raised about both sides conduct.

Yea, a bit of a stretch, but due to an odd convergence of facts there is trouble with the International Space Station due to Russia’s recent foray into Georgia.

The US Space Shuttle is due to be retired in 2010, with manned flights to the space station being handed over to Russian Soyuz rockets. But the only way that can function is an exemption to the Iranian non-proliferation act (normally Russia would be guilty of violating that but the US grants an exemption for space operations). The current exemption expires in 2011 and chances of it being renewed are ‘dead on arrival’ according to senior aides on Capitol Hill. As our only way on board is the Russian ships until the Shuttle’s replacement is online, we’re looking at a period of limited access to the station until this gets sorted out.

So Senator Bill Nelson is starting to ask some questions–what are we going to do next? Nelson was in Afghanistan last week when the fighting broke out and his flight home had to be re-routed after Russia denied diplomatic overflight rights to his aircraft.

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Photo courtesy of Madam Tussards

It’s sad to think that Bill Richardson was once our UN Ambassador….

On ABC’s “This Week,” Richardson, auditioning to be Barack Obama’s running mate, disqualified himself. Clinging to the Obama campaign’s talking points like a drunk to a lamppost, Richardson said that this crisis proves the wisdom of Obama’s zest for diplomacy and that America should get the U.N. Security Council “to pass a strong resolution getting the Russians to show some restraint.” Apparently Richardson was ambassador to the United Nations for 19 months without noticing that Russia has a Security Council veto.

Obamatoids are already saying ‘but no, if we were REALLY diplomatic and charming we could get the Russian’s to go along with it’ (eventhough it calls them to the carpet for their actions).

And they say Texas is missing a village idiot?

BONUS: Richardson’s endorsement of Obama, slightly edited:

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Russian officials are claiming all Russian forces are out of Georgia.

Georgian officials (and Western journalists) are reporting the city of Gori is under attack.

Now reports of a tank column heading out of Gori towards Tiblisi.

So who is right? Probably everyone.

The tank convoy is probably composed of South Ossetian ‘volunteers’–basically bandits, running around in ‘donated’ tanks seeking to settle scores and loot and pillage. With the Georgian army basically in disarray, let alone the police, it’s going to get positively medieval in some of these areas. Guns will rule and the only protection will likely come from armed neighbors and ad hoc militias.

This sort of warfare is not known for their observance of the Geneva Convention or other rules of war. It’s likely the human rights abuses we’re going to see in the next few days will far and away exceed any of the ‘claimed’ abuses over the last week.

It’s going to be ugly.

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Reports are coming in about Gori, Georgia and the presence of Russian tanks and South Ossetians who are looting and sacking all that they can find.

Violence has flared up in Georgia, where Russian tanks have been seen patrolling the town of Gori, says the BBC’s Gavin Hewitt near the scene.

People leaving the town say there is looting going on involving South Ossetian separatists.

There are reports of residents being stripped of everything at gunpoint on the entrances to the city.

Western journalists reported 10 Russian tanks attacking parts of the city despite the cease fire.

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