Tag: War

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Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman have announced they will be removing Georgian forces from South Ossetia. Russia now has nearly 10,000 troops in South Ossetia (which had a pre-battle population of 70,000) and the Russian Black Sea fleet is positioning itself off the Georgian coast for a naval blockade.

Meanwhile, strategic thinkers are starting to question the response by Russia. The use of ballistic missiles and strategic bombers seems disproportionate to an attack on peacekeepers, and some are questioning whether these attacks are designed to destabilize the Georgian government, or at least keep them out of NATO.

One other side effect of the attack is a more unified Western ‘view’ on Russia and the fact they may not be a ‘partner’ in the future. French, UK and other European allies share the US view that Russia may have burnt some bridges with their overresponse to this crisis.

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Russia continues to pour troops into South Ossetia and has reportedly stepped up the bombing of Georgia, targeting not just military locations but economic assets such as ports and pipelines. Meanwhile the world has been sending ambassadors and whatnot demanding that Russia pullback, but the Russian government is starting to ask the big question–why?

Russia will win militarily, through sheer numbers if not military ability. While it may be a much longer fight than just this weekend (despite what Russian bloggers think) the overall political climate in Russia is now asking the question ‘maybe we should redraw the maps.’

With a veto at the UN, don’t expect ‘blue helmets’ to be replacing the Russian ‘peacekeepers’ in South Ossetia anytime soon. Putin is calling the Georgian attack ‘Genocide’ which is a pretty loaded word designed to stir up a range of emotions around the world, though many around the world take everything Putin says with a grain of salt. It’s pretty clear that most of the world isn’t going to be rushing to the Russian side on this matter, but it’s also pretty clear that that doesn’t really matter.

What happens next is anyones guess. Militarily we could see guerilla-like fighting for years. Economically it’s unlikely we’ll see any sort of sanctions or anything more than a slap on the wrist (i.e. visa troubles for Russian leaders, etc). Russia might find itself kicked out of the G-8 regardless of who wins the American presidential election in a few months, but it’s doubtful many Russians would really care.

How much of a ‘resurgence’ in the Russian military is ‘real’ (readiness / training / resupply) and how much was for ’show’ (i.e. long range bomber flights of little significant value) over the last few years of Putin’s tenure will soon become apparent. Should the Roki tunnel (where South Ossetia gets much of its money) be blown up by some errant missile, resupply of Russian forces would become a bit more difficult.

We’ll see what happens next.

p.s. for additional updates from the Russian point of view you can use TASS’s English language website. It is updated more frequently than Russia Today’s website. For the Georgian side you can check the Civil.ge website.

UPDATES:

* Head of the Russian 58th Army injured in attack.

* Georgia claims to retake South Ossetian capital, destroying 40 Russian tanks.

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The ‘war’ in South Ossetia between Russia and Georgia (well, is it a war or not, who really knows or cares at this point) has gotten to the point that reliable information from the ground is difficult to obtain.

* Both sides claim to be in control (or occupying) the South Ossetian capital city. Russiatoday claims the capital is basically destroyed, including many hospitals.

* Bombs continue to fall on Georgian cities from Russian aircraft.

* Georgia has called for a cease-fire, as have many members of the UN.

* In Abkhazia, separtistist are trying to open a ’second front’ against Georgia by launching air and artillery strikes on Georgian forces in the Kodori Gorge.

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* Russian planes attacked the Georgian city of Gori, bombing military bases and reportedly some civilian buildings.

* Russia announced additional forces will be sent to South Ossetia.

* The Georgian port of Poti was destroyed.

* Georgia claims 10 planes have been shot down, and Russian TV confirms at least two.

* 1,500 have been reported killed.

* President Bush has called for an immediate halt to all fighting.

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* 150 Russian tanks in the suburbs of the South Ossetian capital

* Georgia recalls 1,000 Georgian troops currently in Iraq.

* RussiaToday puts death toll at 1,400.

* Georgia claims 5 Russian aircraft shot down.

* 1000s of Russian / Cossack volunteer forces are heading for Ossetia.

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AP is reporting that Russian television is claiming Russian troops are entering South Ossetia.

A Russian official denied bombing Georgia, but Russian state television said Russian troops were moving into South Ossetia and showed a convoy of tanks that it said had already crossed the border. The convoy was expected to reach the provincial capital, Tskhinvali, by evening, Channel One television said.

UPDATE: BBC is reporting 150 pieces of armor coming through the tunnel (one does wonder why the Georgians did not blow it up)

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For many Americans you can now catch live coverage of the Georgia-South Ossetia crisis on the Kremlin’s Engilsh language service Russia Today. The MHZ Networks offers Russia Today as a free channel to residents in the Washington, DC area, and Russia Today is free to air on many satellites over the US. If you don’t have one of those services, you can also catch Russia Today’s Youtube Channel

Now, being a Russian channel, you’ll hear some stuff like:

* “We must stop the slaughter of Russians”

* “Russia will not tolerate deaths of compatriots”

and you won’t hear about Russian warplanes being involved or any resupply of South Ossetians from Russian territory.

But still, given that the US media is focused on the Olympics or the bus crash in Texas today (12 dead) at least you’ll get to hear something about what is going on (and lots and lots of live video).

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The Georgian Messenger is the English language daily that is ‘live blogging’ events from South Ossetia. There latest blog post is pretty interesting.

Georgia’s Rustavi 2 television station, citiing Russian news reports, just announced that Georgian troops have taken Tskhinvali.

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