Tag: Russia

With the whole world calling Russia a ‘big brother’ getting unfairly involved in someone elses fight, you’d think the government their would have thought of some better wording than ‘punishment’ to describe their operations in South Ossetia. President Medvedev was given permission to speak by Putin announced that Russian forces would cease operations, though under the rules of engagement if they were fired upon they would ‘destroy’ the ‘aggressors’.

This follows a public statement by Bush, and likely some very private threats as well. My speculation is that Russia was given a choice, cease fire now, or face the prospect of a combined US-European ‘announcement’ that NATO peacekeepers and other military forces would be sent to the region, or a an immediate granting of NATO status to somewhere like the Ukraine, which would have been a greater long term loss to Russia (Ukraine told the Russian is may bar Russian ships from returning to port in the shared Navy base in the Crimea). Of course as I outlined yesterday military troops on the ground were not realistic, but a press release or joint statement by the West saying that peacekeepers would be dispatched with all due haste would have turned the tables on the Russians, either pull out losing face, or stay in and a) depose the government, something they claimed they were not doing or b) face the prospect of fighting the West, something neither side wanted.

Face-saving is not just a Chinese concept.

]]>

Many Georgian government website and newspapers are under denial of service and other forms of cyberattack originating from inside Russia. In response, the Georgian government has decided to take advantage of Google’s Blogger service and the security systems offered by Google. From now on, Georgian government official statements are being made at http://georgiamfa.blogspot.com/

]]>

The United States European Command just finished (last Thursday) Operation Immediate Response 2008, a training exercise in Georgia. These troops are in addition to the 127 military trainers that are in country more or less permanently working with the Georgian military.

In addition to the trainers, 1,000 soldiers from the Vicenza, Italy-based Southern European Task Force (Airborne) and the Kaiserslautern-based 21st Theater Sustainment Command, along with Marine reservists with the 3rd Battalion, 25th Marines out of Ohio, and the state of Georgia’s Army National Guard’s 1st Battalion, 121st Infantry recently participated in “Immediate Response 2008.”

That exercise, which had the U.S. troops operating from Vaziani, concluded on Thursday. That base, near the capital of Tbilisi, was bombed by Russian aircraft over the weekend, Georgian officials said.

]]>

Maybe I should just leave this blank as a subtle way of saying what’s really on the table. But if you got to thinking here are some options you could consider:

1) Airlift of Georgian troops from Iraq. (Oops, done that).

2) Provide satellite and electronic intelligence on Russian troops.

3) Provide shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles like Stingers or Strellas (desperately needed)

4) Provide ammunition resupply to Georgian forces.

5) Provide Naval support via shadowing Russian navy (including using submarines)

6) Dispatch Air Force fighters & A-10 tank killers

7) Provide advisors to counsel on war operations.

8 ) Move forward pre-positioned equipment into Black Sea

9) Provide Air Cover / No Fly Zone over Georgia

10) Put boots on the ground.

As you can see, none of those really look all that exciting, and the cost politically (both and home and abroad) along with the cost in lives and the cost in dollars would be great. US forces are stretched thin as they are now and resupplying basically a ‘third’ combat zone would tax our logistics capabilities to the breaking point.

So basically, the US has little to do militarily but sit and watch.

]]>

What is certain to be considered a major escalation in the fighting, Russian ground forces are reportedly attacking the Georgian city of Gori well outside the disputed South Ossetian region. While technically South Ossetia is recognized by the entire world as part of Georgia, the crossing of that border into Georgia proper is going to have major repercussions for the Russians and has started to change the tone of questions to ‘when is Russia going to stop fighting in response to Georgia’s invasion of S. Ossetia?’ to something along the lines of ‘just what are the Russians *really* up to?’ The latter line of questioning is going to have an impact in Soviet Russian – Western relations for many years to come.

Meanwhile, Georgian forces in Iraq have been landing in Tiblisi and some questions are being raised on how exactly they got there (and whether US air power played a role).

]]>

]]>

Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman have announced they will be removing Georgian forces from South Ossetia. Russia now has nearly 10,000 troops in South Ossetia (which had a pre-battle population of 70,000) and the Russian Black Sea fleet is positioning itself off the Georgian coast for a naval blockade.

Meanwhile, strategic thinkers are starting to question the response by Russia. The use of ballistic missiles and strategic bombers seems disproportionate to an attack on peacekeepers, and some are questioning whether these attacks are designed to destabilize the Georgian government, or at least keep them out of NATO.

One other side effect of the attack is a more unified Western ‘view’ on Russia and the fact they may not be a ‘partner’ in the future. French, UK and other European allies share the US view that Russia may have burnt some bridges with their overresponse to this crisis.

]]>

Russia continues to pour troops into South Ossetia and has reportedly stepped up the bombing of Georgia, targeting not just military locations but economic assets such as ports and pipelines. Meanwhile the world has been sending ambassadors and whatnot demanding that Russia pullback, but the Russian government is starting to ask the big question–why?

Russia will win militarily, through sheer numbers if not military ability. While it may be a much longer fight than just this weekend (despite what Russian bloggers think) the overall political climate in Russia is now asking the question ‘maybe we should redraw the maps.’

With a veto at the UN, don’t expect ‘blue helmets’ to be replacing the Russian ‘peacekeepers’ in South Ossetia anytime soon. Putin is calling the Georgian attack ‘Genocide’ which is a pretty loaded word designed to stir up a range of emotions around the world, though many around the world take everything Putin says with a grain of salt. It’s pretty clear that most of the world isn’t going to be rushing to the Russian side on this matter, but it’s also pretty clear that that doesn’t really matter.

What happens next is anyones guess. Militarily we could see guerilla-like fighting for years. Economically it’s unlikely we’ll see any sort of sanctions or anything more than a slap on the wrist (i.e. visa troubles for Russian leaders, etc). Russia might find itself kicked out of the G-8 regardless of who wins the American presidential election in a few months, but it’s doubtful many Russians would really care.

How much of a ‘resurgence’ in the Russian military is ‘real’ (readiness / training / resupply) and how much was for ’show’ (i.e. long range bomber flights of little significant value) over the last few years of Putin’s tenure will soon become apparent. Should the Roki tunnel (where South Ossetia gets much of its money) be blown up by some errant missile, resupply of Russian forces would become a bit more difficult.

We’ll see what happens next.

p.s. for additional updates from the Russian point of view you can use TASS’s English language website. It is updated more frequently than Russia Today’s website. For the Georgian side you can check the Civil.ge website.

UPDATES:

* Head of the Russian 58th Army injured in attack.

* Georgia claims to retake South Ossetian capital, destroying 40 Russian tanks.

]]>

The ‘war’ in South Ossetia between Russia and Georgia (well, is it a war or not, who really knows or cares at this point) has gotten to the point that reliable information from the ground is difficult to obtain.

* Both sides claim to be in control (or occupying) the South Ossetian capital city. Russiatoday claims the capital is basically destroyed, including many hospitals.

* Bombs continue to fall on Georgian cities from Russian aircraft.

* Georgia has called for a cease-fire, as have many members of the UN.

* In Abkhazia, separtistist are trying to open a ’second front’ against Georgia by launching air and artillery strikes on Georgian forces in the Kodori Gorge.

]]>