Russia – Page 3 – PenguinSix

Humanitarian aid ship

This is not Georgia despite the similarities.

In response to international pressure to come forward with the truth behind their claims of ‘mass casualties’ in South Ossetia, the Russian government has finally admitted that initial death toll estimates of nearly 2,000 dead were overstated. New figures released today show that 133 civilians died in South Ossetia. South Ossetian officials said 1,492 civilians had been killed, but international investigators are reporting the numbers will be in the ‘dozens’ not hundreds, let alone thousands.

Both Georgia and Russia have filed human rights cases accusing the other of genocide. As these trials move forward additional facts may come to light.

Last week Georgia said it had filed a case against Russia on charges of ethnic cleansing at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which rules on disputes between nations.

Meanwhile the International Criminal Court said it was conducting an analysis of the conflict over potential war crimes – but that it was stopping short of an investigation.

Chief prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo said in a statement that his office had been “closely monitoring all information on the situation” including reports on attacks on civilians.

]]>

We’ve been questioning the ‘2,000 dead’ claim by Russian media, and to date they haven’t come up with any reliable numbers about just how many were killed in South Ossetia. It does appear clear the Russian media was way out of the ballpark with the claim of 2,000 dead, by a factor of about 40 or 50 times the actual death toll.

The Georgian government has released their casualty figures.

Total number of people killed since the launch of the armed conflict reached 215 on the Georgian side as of August 19.

69 of them are civilians.

133 killed are the Georgian Ministry of Defense personnel, including four servicemen of the reserve troops and 13 – the Interior Ministry personnel.

In fact reports are now out that the town that was ‘leveled’ according to Russian news reports is still standing, and the only hospital in the area had 40 deaths reported.

Researchers for Human Rights Watch, an international advocacy group, had similar findings as McClatchy about casualty numbers in Tskhinvali. A doctor at the city’s hospital told the group’s researchers that 44 bodies were brought by and was “adamant” that they represented the majority of deaths there because the city’s morgue was not functioning at the time.

“Obviously there’s a discrepancy there, a big discrepancy,” Rachel Denber, deputy director for Europe and Central Asia at Human Rights Watch, said about the apparently inflated casualty figures. “It’s not clear to us at all where those numbers are coming from.”

]]>

Awe inspiring, isn't it? NOT

The Washington Post attempts to put together a timeline of how the Russia-Georgia war started. It gives a pretty good outline of some of the pre-war duels that took place before the introduction of armor units.

Like any battle, there is a definite fog of war that shrouds the events. We may never know the full timeline of events.

A U.S. official familiar with intelligence from the region said the administration could not put a time on the Russian move into South Ossetia. “It’s not clear,” the official said. “You’d have to have had somebody there with a stopwatch, and something overhead at precisely that moment.”

]]>

Sometimes Russians actually believe their own propaganda. Proof of this is General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, the Russian armed forces’ deputy chief of staff, who basically threatened to nuke Poland for their participation in the US missile defense program.

“Poland, by deploying [the system] is exposing itself to a strike – 100 per cent,” he was quoted as saying, before explaining that Russian military doctrine sanctioned the use of nuclear weapons “against the allies of countries having nuclear weapons if they in some way help them”.

Somewhere in Russia a village is missing an idiot.

]]>

Poland doesn't look like this, but this is the missile they are getting.

The recent crisis in Georgia has revealed the impotence of ‘Old Europe’ and NATO. Is it time for something new to meet the needs of New Europe?

Deja vu all over again?

While Russian tanks were crossing through the tunnels and passes (memo to Georgia: everyone knows you blow up the tunnels and bridges first), the leaders of Western Europe were basically caught with nothing to do. ”They haven’t shot at me” was basically the point that was on the mind of every Western European leader, followed quickly by “I don’t want to go nuclear over Georgia”. These two factors (not, in any way, who was right or who was wrong) were what kept most European leaders sitting on their hands as they watched Georgia get chewed to pieces.

When we used to study Soviet Military Power and Doctorine it was always assumed that the first time a Soviet tank went on the offensive it would be shooting at a NATO tank, and thus the decision to start fighting back would be off the table. Some 18-year-old kid in the turret of a tank somewhere in Germany was going to decide NATO’s response to a Soviet conventional attack. But in this new world, that ease of red force/blue force decision making is gone, and we’re stuck in the grey area.

You can find some contrast in the response of Europe if you take a look at the leaders of ‘New Europe. Composed of former Soviet states they were not afraid in the least to mess with the Bear, for they knew what awaited them should their countries fall back into the ’sphere of influence’. Ukraine has told the Black Sea fleet they can expect problems when they return, and leaders of many former Soviet republics flew into Georgia in the middle of the fight to provide counsel and assistance. Some in the Eastern European media are even asking if Old Europe really understands what is going on:

“Old Europe,” once again, failed to listen to the warnings of those with first-hand knowledge of Russian treachery. “Old Europe isn’t listening to Poles, Lithuanians and Ukrainians. Old Europe doesn’t want to anger Russia, and doesn’t see the integrity of Georgia’s borders as something worth risking its relationship with Moscow over,” the left-leaning daily Gazeta Wyborcza wrote. “Once again, we can only try to tell them that we’re not letting our feelings be guided by Russophobia but merely speaking from long years of personal experience.”

Unfortunately New Europe is pretty weak and the US is pretty busy elsewhere in the world. So it has me wondering if now is the time for a new, mini-version of NATO. Composed of the Eastern European states (and armed and supported by Old Europe). A NATO that does not have nukes and is not a nuclear threat to Russia, but one that is well equipped, trained, and ready to take on the Bear should it come poking around it’s old stomping grounds. A force like this might be the one needed to stop an aggressive and growing threat.

One by one, the old Soviet empire could be rebuilt by a resurgent Russia and a placid NATO. Georgia, Ukraine, Lativa, Estonia, etc. They could fall without most Americans even noticing to be quite honest. But if they fought together, they might actually have a chance. Perhaps it is time for New Europe to look for a new alliance to help them in the new reality they now face.

]]>

Because you probably don't know where it is either.

Debka, which is NOT one of the most accurate websites in the world (but still pretty interesting) is reporting that the quasi-breakaway region of Adjara (also spelled Ajaria and Ajara) in the Southwest corner of Georgia may be ripe for the pickings by Russian naval forces. The population of Adjara is split between Russians and Muslims and there is a bit of discontent with the Georgian government (though not as much as in Ossetia). After a briefing crisis, the former separatist leader was sent to exile in Moscow.

There is/was a Russian naval base in Batumi, and another small garrison elsewhere in the region that is supposed to be turned over soon. However, Batumi is the pipeline <-> ship port for Georgia and having control of this vital location is certainly of interest to some in Moscow.

It will be interesting to see how far Russia goes in ‘punishing’ Georgia and whether this might include the port at Batumi.

]]>