Internet – Page 8 – PenguinSix

So just how much money is there in search in China?

Of course with yesterday’s “New Course” announcement there has been a lot of talk about Google surrendering the market to Baidu or other search engines in China. But I was curious and decided to take a quick look at the numbers right now for revenues in search in China. I was actually quite surprised at how little is being made there. And as I thought about it, I realized this really isn’t about money at all, when you start to take this up the ladder to the global politics that might soon come into play. Baidu (BIDU) brings in about 3,194,000,000 in RMB per year, or about $467 million dollars annually. This comes from revenue from search (i.e. ads) but also from subscriptions services offered by Baidu, some of which are notorious for providing links to copyright violating material (think Napster-like). Google (GOOG) has revenues worldwide of about $21,795,000,000 US$ per year. This works out to about $419 million per WEEK. So, even if Baidu was to explode tomorrow, and Google get all the of the revenues formerly received by their competitor, you’d be looking at something like a 2% increase in the overall revenue picture for Google. Given that Google has only about 1/3 of the search traffic in China, you have to figure they are not bringing in more than $100-$150 million in total revenue from their operations there. For Google, that’s just chicken feed. They spend more than that on green tech projects as sort of a side business. You have to start to look at the value of the Google brand, such as Gmail’s security, Google’s overall public relations (which is scoring a major coup today) and some new projects like the reliability of Android, Chrome and the GPhone. These are multi-billion dollar projects in the future and with problems in China affecting the value of these brands, it starts to make sense, from a financial standpoint, to sacrifice Chinese search revenues for the long term value of the Google name. There is a lot of chest thumping on some of the nationalist messageboards in China, and I’ve even seen some posts saying that by leaving China, Google is going to hurt the overall US economy and continue the recession. Some are playing this as Baidu beat Google at their own game, but the reality is probably a bit different than that. Sure, Baidu has commanded a greater market share, but Google just went over their head and made it not Baidu v. Google but China v. Google. In the worldwide court of public opinion, in which the reputation of “Brand China” and “Brand Google” are at risk, the issue of a few hundred million in search revenue grows even smaller. The anti-China forces on Capitol Hill are now licking their chops. There is a growing sense of an impending trade war and this spat may end up, in the long run, costing China, Inc BILLIONS should the negative perception of the Chinese government continue to grow and develop into economic sanctions of one sort or another. China is starting the year as the ‘bad boy’ for their actions in Copenhagen, and now they have this problem to deal with. In a country in which face matters, the Chinese government is certainly paying quite a bit of attention to the steady stream of supportive press that Google is getting for thumbing their noses at the rules. This is going to be interesting…]]>

Google: I'm shocked, shocked to find that evil is going on in here!

Well this was not unexpected. Google has announced, on their English-language blog, that because of cyberattacks directed against certain human rights figures who use Google email accounts, Google is going to stop filtering their searches and if the Chinese government doesn’t like it, they are going to pull up stakes from China. I’m shocked, shocked to find that evil is going on in here. Google has never really been all that reliable in China. The government is constantly interfering in search queries to google.cn, and the google site is frequently inaccesible within the country. Baidu, Google’s clone in China, has frequently mucked about with Google’s operations in China, from being a tattle-tale about bad searches for porn to even more blatant (and quasi-illegal) actions behind the scenes and, possibly, under the table. Google has thrown down the gauntlet after a relatively minor event. Some may say this is the straw that broke the camel’s back, but in reality, this whole thing, China-exit/Woo-the-world’s-press was sitting on a shelf waiting, just waiting for an excuse to be put into operation. I just have to wonder, why today? While the Baidu folks and Chinese nationalists are screaming ‘we won’ the reality was it wasn’t necessarily a race that had to end on January 13, 2010. I doubt Google’s China operations were costing that much vs. the cost of their revenues. And generally, while a consistent black-eye to the company, there hasn’t been a flurry of anti-google PR in recent months for their operations in China. So I just have to wonder why January 13, 2010 is the date in which it all ‘just became too much’. Is something else about to happen? Was the writing on the wall that there was going to be some larger changes within China–some additional censorship or legal requirements? We haven’t heard the full story, by a long stretch. Perhaps in a few months I’ll get more details when I’m back in China, but for right now, the whole thing just seems a bit like an ‘excuse’ rather than a ‘reason’. UPDATE: For what it is worth, Baidu’s revenues in China are approximately $450 million a year US. Google’s revenue’s world wide are approximately $21 billion, or nearly 50 times larger. Google makes in about a week what Baidu makes in a year, so walking away from the China market right now really isn’t going to hurt the bottom line.]]>

3D TV or Die: Television's last gasp gimmick to slow IPTV?

[/caption] So everyone who went to Vegas came back talking about 3D televisions, and I guess I probably should as well. The folks who saw 3D tv and who were awestruck basically fell into two categories: gamers and sports fans. The gamers were really excited about some of their favorite titles ending up in HD, and the sports fanatics were basically just a bunch of drooling jibbering idiots (according to Leo Laporte of Tech TV during one of his posts). Oh yea, and porn too. But we’re not going to go there. But it might also be about keeping one step ahead of the streaming IPTV services. Print never had a chance, music took solace (wrongfully) in the idea that mp3’s were of such an inferior quality that people wouldn’t give up CD’s for the sound, and radio went down a long dark road to HD nowhere thinking that was the solution to the problem (as they saw it). TV moved up to HD quality a few years back, forcing everyone to buy a new television and forestalling, temporarily, the IPTV movement. Just when bandwidth got to such a level to support some good quality streaming (such as Twit.tv) they raised the bar to a quality level that as some have said, once you have seen it is hard to go back to standard digital. But now HD streaming is becoming more and more popular. Hulu is offering HD streams of TV programs, Youtube is as well. There are TV programs such as FILMON that allows HD streaming of content that is pretty impressive for live quality. Perhaps this whole 3D thing is just another attempt to push the bar a bit higher–to differentiate IPTV from 3DHD. Make it harder for the computer folks to keep up with what the television networks are offering, and you are able to stay in business a few more years as an over the air / cable broadcaster. Stay alive until the new new thing is out, or until TV figures out streaming in such a way as they can make a decent profit from it and avoid the piracy concerns they have. Or maybe it is just a gimmick. As for me, no way I’m buying a 3D TV for at least a few product cycles (i.e. until they get a standard, and work out the kinks).]]>

Some cool things at CES missed by the major media

energyhub [/caption] D-link is a massive company that has network switches, routers, cameras and a ton of other things. They’ve recently fixed their home security monitoring system to include energy systems, utilizing third party electrical plugs. Honestly it felt like energy monitoring was a bit of an after thought for them, but apparently their system was nominated for the best in innovation award for CES. Energyhub is the startup of the mix. They have a nice display and outlet covers running over Zigbee. They’ve closed a recent funding round and have another in the wings. They will have some tough competition from the bigger players if they can’t get going fast enough, but their units looked very professional and ready for consumers to start buying. Marvell has a nice looking device that will be out in Home Depot shortly. It works over wifi and displays the usage of all outlets and whatnot, along with also controlling your lawns sprinkler systems if you have such a thing. They were the furthest along in development and said they will be in Home Depots sometime in the next few months, at a pretty low cost. Oregon Scientific. Looks very sexy but haven’t seen it in person yet. There are probably other devices out there, but I haven’t had a chance to meet them all. What is really interesting about these devices is that eventually they will be in almost every home, regardless of whether you are geeky or not as new contractors and energy companies start to roll them out for consumer usage. I’m going to the ‘Asia rooms’ today to meet with manufacturers of different things. They might have some cool toys in there as well. Follow my Twitter updates if you want to keep up with me real time.]]>

What will be the cool things at CES this year?

The gadget blog dvice.com has their 5 Tech Trends at CES, though I’m not sure I agree with the ordering. 3D Tv (?), Pico projectors (to put your iPhone video on the wall), ebooks (dull), tablets (not until Apple speaks) and connected everything (probably). It doesn’t mention mobile tech which will be getting a lot of play this year, nor any of the other things that geeks are talking about (social networking, location aware, etc). And this is one of the problems with CES. CES is about consumer electronics. Sure there are a few ‘new new’ things out there, but there are also tables after tables of extension cords. There is room for TV antennas. Space for wineglass washing machines, and shoe buffers. It’s really a trade show that is about anything you plug in and can buy from Kmart, not necessarily from Frys. And it is far removed from the geeky world of that which lives on the net. As devices have become connected (see the cited article) there is more and more of a connection between the online world and appliances, but CES really isn’t “the show” for the Internet generation and companies. Many of the folks I’ve worked with in the pure online world have come to CES out of default, and once they get there they often feel like ‘well, I’ve seen it, and now I don’t have to see it again’. So what trade show is the one for the online world? Unfortunately, it hasn’t really happened yet. There is no “Net 2010” show that rivals the size and scope of a CES so for now, Vegas is where you have to go. Such is life.]]>

A brilliant idea, but…

Lots of startup excitement around the house this weekend, and a bit of cussing. Over the last few days I’ve been researching an untapped area of the ‘Green tech’ movement. Something that would make quite a bit of sense, would be quick to market, and something that would have multiple channels to revenue, let alone venture capital. I queried some of my friends, including some successful entrepreneurs in San Fran, a couple of PhD’s in Silicon Valley, an electronics company VP in NY, and two electricians wearing NASCAR hats down at my local electronics supply company (who actually had some interesting insight). On the plus side–everyone said this is needed and must be built. On the down side–someone else is doing it already. So I’m not sitting here thinking ‘is there room for a second mover’ in a field that could be huge, though one in which I’m about six months behind the curve. I have an idea that could leapfrog them, but I’m not sure how technically feasible it is (the physics is there, but is the manufacturing base–I don’t know). So I’m off to CES to talk turkey with the guys from China. Folks who are in the shop building things like that which I want. We’ll see if I come back with a new start-up company, ready to be formed and funded, or if I look for another ‘new new thing’.]]>

Off to Vegas, again

Every year I went to CES (and this is about the seventh trip) I’ve said “oh god, why do I come!” The crowds, the chaos, and usually the weather (it actually snowed one year). But sometimes it is fun. One year I took Doc Searls around showing him what it was like to be a buyer of embedded LINUX products and he showed me the high end stereo room (which was awesome). Another year I met up with Albert Lai of Bubbleshare fame (and now a Facebook developer with lots of cool toys). The good thing about this year is that things are a bit different. My company is in the midst of being acquired and I’ll be a ‘free agent’ for the first time, attending CES to see what is cool, new, exciting and fun, not just what I needed to see (which usually found me in the ‘parts / manufacturers’ area speaking bad Cantonese to some guys from Hong Kong who sell this little thing or that). So I’m off, again, to Vegas. Will try to stay a bit and meet some folks and write about what cool new technologies I see and play with. I have a new startup swirling in my head right now (the last week has been one of frenetic excitement here) and I’m going to go back to the China-room and speak to the manufacturers who might be able to help me get this project off the ground. We’ll post updates from Vegas as I see the cool things. I’ll be at the Lenovo Bloggers night and hopefully the It won’t stay in Vegas party and a few other meetups with bloggers, networked device people and web2.0 folk. One thing is certain–no fricking red eye back to Washington. I’m sick on that hell flight. I’ll stay the extra night and leave during the day.]]>

Increase size of subtitles in BBC iPlayer

Random tip of the day. One of the odd things I’ve noticed with the BBC’s iPlayer downloader is that when you play back videos in full screen, the font size of the subtitles can be ridiculously small. I looked through the settings trying to find a solution, but there didn’t appear to be on easy way to do it. I then stumbled across an easy solution. Switch from fullscreen to the smaller window’d viewer. Then grab the bottom right little corner and shrink the box even further, to the smallest size as possible. Suddenly the subtitles will be quite large. Then hit the fullscreen button. Viola, you’ll have large subtitles on your playback. Go figure.]]>

Book Review: The Boy who Harnessed the Wind – William Kamkwamba

Like many, my introduction to William Kamkwamba came in the form of a slightly awkward but similarly fascinating speech that he gave as a young man to the TED Conference in Africa. Speaking before a collection of billionaires and entrepreneurs, William spilled out what little he could of his story in short fragmented answers to the interviewers questions. One such fragment, simple in its constructions, resonating throughout the hall and amongst the net when he spoke about building his first windmill: “And I try and I made it”. That he made it is not simply a battle against the wind, but a battle just to survive long enough to get to that point. Much of the book, most of the book takes place before William has ever even heard of TED and the story since then. The prejudices of his community, the superstitions that held back so many, and most notably, the terrible famine that struck his village. You may have seen photos of a starving kid in Africa but you’ve probably never heard their stories in such a conversational style. William relays the details of the famine as a blogger would telling the story of his day. It’s simply a gripping read, a story not heard often in the West, and makes his eventual triumph all the more amazing. The overall book itself is a quick read. I plowed through it in a few days with a smile often on my face, an occasional chuckle and a few moments in which I said to myself “they’ll put this part in the movie for sure”. It’s a good story from a land where happy endings are far too few and far between. I would recommend it for those who are seeking an inspirational tale or who have an interest in science and the learning process. I would also recommend a quick review of the TED video and a few others that exist on the net to get some visuals in your head of what William looks and sounds like so you can put a face to the name and a sound to the voice.]]>